Hopefully those resolutions are still alive and well.
Here's a resolution I never make: trying to predict what house prices will do in a new year.
Just about this time last year, out of seemingly nowhere, the market blasted to life. Lack of inventory and maybe some pandemic weariness seemed to be the reason. But prices had been declining for several years, so it was likely time for a bit of a bounce anyway.
But here's a funny thing about real estate—people buy when the prices go up. Like crazy they buy. And when the prices go down, they just sit there.
Nobody wants to be the dude that bought a house
last winter, and the same place is 10k less this winter.
I've also noticed that when prices are dropping, people will tell me (with confidence) the market will continue to fall for the next couple of years. I always ask how they know this, and they say, "I just know." Hmmm.
So, people become (confidently) uneasy, and they pass this along, and everyone sits there. So yes, prices do drop if buyers aren't buying.
But then a pandemic. When it hit (the first wave anyway), everyone peeked out the blinds for a few weeks and thought about dying and bending the curve and how disgusting shaking hands really was.
Then they decided to get on with their lives, and the buyers returned. A whole lot of hating of the same four walls, let's live our best life(!) and finally get a house we love was happening.
So the buyers came back. But not so fast with the
sellers.
Nobody wanted a germ-bloated stranger standing in their kitchen or taking a tour of their walk-in closet.
The lack of new listings created the demand needed. A few new listings in the late spring of 2020 even had multiple offers. This shot through the realtor community! We hadn't seen people fight over houses since 2013.
Once the word got out, people decided they better buy a house—the price would surely go up! FOMO took hold.
Right now, I'm seeing a new FOMO take hold. People believe mortgage rates are rising, and they'd better buy quickly. It seems like they'd overpay for a house just to lock in a great rate. Makes no sense. I started in real estate in 2009, and every year I hear people say the rates will go up.
That's why I don't try to predict the housing market. It's influenced by regular people making personal decisions.
Right ones or wrong ones, either way. So how can I stand in front of a client and tell them what the market will be doing in 2025? I can't. Well, I could, of course. And maybe some realtors do, but they're making it up.
Consider this: You go to the grocery store and see the price of tomatoes has shot up. What should you do? Should you panic-fill your cart with tomatoes in case the price goes up even further. Or should you wait until the supply of tomatoes increases, the price comes back down a bit, and it's an excellent time to buy tomatoes once more.
After all that, I'm predicting the market will be strong this spring and summer as the buyers seem to be buying. But I could be wrong.
CB
Listing Pic Fail of the
Month
Nobody wants to live in an area that has drive-bys. Somebody should have told this Realtor when he loaded this one up to MLS and clicked save.
